What we do
We are an independent macro economic research firm known for being highly quantitative and for uncovering unique relationships. We look for ways to make macro economics systematically useful for financial decisions rather than trying to cover all issues and answer all questions. We try to marry a thorough understanding of the data with creative ways to relate the pieces of the macro economy together and then find which, if any asset prices can be tied in.
Our US and Euro Area macro research covers all the usual sectors of the economy as well as the major issues (inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, the labor markets, etc.). For the US, we have developed specific models on several industries and sectors, mostly the major durable goods (residential housing, motor vehicles, and business investment). In addition, for the US and Euro area we have what we think are the most useful frameworks for assessing the labor markets & productivity, corporate profits & earnings, credit & debt.
Our Global Financial Market research and analysis is all quantitatively based and relies on the details of our macro framework. Our Global Manufacturing Framework has proven to be extremely useful for the financial markets. Additionally, we have specific expertise on the profit cycle and its influence on the equity and credit markets. This work has created a series of investment recommendations ranging from broad asset allocation (emerging market equities versus US equities, corporate spreads, long/short treasuries) to sector recommendations (US housing, commercial banks). We have also done work on relative commodities.
In addition to written reports, our service includes phone or email inquiries, conference calls and on site meetings.
Emerging Markets research is available through our strategic partnership with Jonathan Anderson of Emerging Advisors Group. Emerging Advisors provides consulting services on emerging economies and markets in China, Asia, Europe, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East. Product offerings include daily thematic research, regular data and chartbook publications.